Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Chippewas @ Bulls CMU @ BUF

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

CHIPPEWASCMU

9-19  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 2:00 PM ET
Alumni Arena
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BULLSBUF

16-12  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
CHIPPEWAS
0%
📊
BULLS
100%
CHIPPEWAS --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
ChippewasCMU (-3.5) 0 BullsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chippewas Cover

46.0%

Bulls Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BUF +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

CMU By 1-7 points

26.2%

CMU By 8-14 points

16.9%

BUF By 1-7 points

24.3%

BUF By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
79
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
78
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
71
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
76
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chippewas Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulls (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Bulls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 CMU @ BUF 75 - 70
Feb 25, 2025 BUF @ CMU 69 - 73
Jan 28, 2025 CMU @ BUF 69 - 75
Jan 2, 2024 BUF @ CMU 76 - 64
Feb 21, 2023 CMU @ BUF 35 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.5% more
Central Michigan: 5.2 vs Buffalo: 3.4
Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Central Michigan: 49.9% vs Buffalo: 43.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Central Michigan: 38.4% vs Buffalo: 36.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +8.8%
Buffalo: 75.7% vs Central Michigan: 66.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CMU Score 79.0 75
BUF Score 78.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 38.4 36.0 / 41.0
Assists 13.6 / 13.7 18.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.4 / 5.2 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 49.9 49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 66.9 67.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 30.1 23.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.7 / 9.2 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 12.4 8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
BUF Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
BUF Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
13-16-0
O: 44.8% / U: 55.2% Total +/-: +0.4
BUF
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
CMU
BUF
CMU
ML
45% 14-17
57% 17-13
45% 14-17
70% 21-9
ATS
55% 17-14
67% 20-10
45% 14-17
70% 21-9
TTL
48% 15-16
67% 20-10
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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