Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Screaming Eagles @ Trojans USI @ LR

SOUTHERN INDIANA

SCREAMING EAGLESUSI

7-22  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 4:00 PM ET
Jack Stephens Center
View Odds Details →

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

11-19  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
SCREAMING EAGLES
100%
📊
TROJANS
0%
SCREAMING EAGLES --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Little Rock)
Screaming EaglesUSI (-3.5) 0 TrojansLR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Screaming Eagles Cover

46.0%

Trojans Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)

USI By 1-7 points

24.3%

USI By 8-14 points

13.7%

LR By 1-7 points

26.2%

LR By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
84
SOUTHERN INDIANA
85
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
70
SOUTHERN INDIANA
81
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trojans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trojans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trojans (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Trojans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 USI @ LR 70 - 89
Dec 18, 2025 LR @ USI 77 - 62
Feb 6, 2025 LR @ USI 74 - 56
Jan 12, 2025 USI @ LR 58 - 78
Feb 17, 2024 USI @ LR 62 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +23.6% more
Little Rock: 6.8 vs Southern Indiana: 5.5
Field Goal % (L5) +1.5%
Little Rock: 42.8% vs Southern Indiana: 41.2%
Blocks (L5) +27.2% more
Southern Indiana: 5.2 vs Little Rock: 3.8
Turnovers (L5) +11.3% more
Southern Indiana: 10.5 vs Little Rock: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USI Score 84.0 70
LR Score 85.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 34.3 57.0 / 20.0
Assists 12.3 / 12.0 20.0 / 5.0
Blocks 3.8 / 5.2 10.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 41.2 57.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 69.1 / 69.1 71.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 34.2 36.0 / 41.0
Steals 6.8 / 5.5 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 10.5 9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USI
7-23-0 (23.3%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
LR Advantage
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USI Advantage
11-16-1 (40.7%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USI
11-17-0
O: 39.3% / U: 60.7% Total +/-: -3.3
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
USI
LR
USI
ML
52% 16-15
67% 20-10
68% 17-8
61% 17-11
ATS
45% 14-17
70% 21-9
68% 17-8
61% 17-11
TTL
58% 18-13
73% 22-8
100% 25-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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