Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Vikings @ Grizzlies PRST @ MONT

PORTLAND STATE

VIKINGSPRST

18-9  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 4:00 PM ET
Dahlberg Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

15-14  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
100%
📊
GRIZZLIES
0%
VIKINGS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Montana)
VikingsPRST (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

38.2%

Grizzlies Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

PRST By 1-7 points

21.6%

PRST By 8-14 points

10.7%

MONT By 1-7 points

27.2%

MONT By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
77
PORTLAND STATE
80
MONTANA
Simulated Score
66
PORTLAND STATE
74
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+1) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.0 Push
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim u142.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 MONT @ PRST 75 - 72
Feb 28, 2026 PRST @ MONT 68 - 74
Jan 29, 2026 MONT @ PRST 64 - 60
Mar 1, 2025 MONT @ PRST 76 - 79
Jan 30, 2025 PRST @ MONT 78 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +50.8% more
Montana: 14.8 vs Portland State: 9.8
Turnovers (L5) +12.1% more
Montana: 12.6 vs Portland State: 11.3
Free Throw % (L5) +9.3%
Montana: 78.8% vs Portland State: 69.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Montana: 47.9% vs Portland State: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PRST Score 77.0 68
MONT Score 80.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 37.7 41.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.8 / 9.8 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.4 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.9 / 42.4 49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 69.5 62.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 31.2 / 33.1 33.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.5 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 11.3 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
3%MONEY97%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PRST Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +0.8
MONT
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PRST Advantage
18-9-1 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.4 ATS +/-: +0.8
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PRST
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.9
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
PRST
MONT
PRST
ML
39% 13-20
65% 20-11
73% 24-9
71% 22-9
ATS
55% 18-15
71% 22-9
73% 24-9
71% 22-9
TTL
59% 19-13-1
47% 14-16-1
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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