SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
11-19 | Road
74
PORTLAND
PILOTSPORT
12-18 | Home
87
AI Model Win Probability
TOREROS
0%
PILOTS
100%
TOREROS
--
PILOTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USD -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USD)
USD By 1-7 points
27.2%
USD By 8-14 points
23.0%
PORT By 1-7 points
18.6%
PORT By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
79
SAN DIEGO
Portland
74
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
San Diego
69
SAN DIEGO
Portland
78
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Toreros
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pilots
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Toreros (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Pilots (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
USD @ PORT
74 - 87
Feb 11, 2026
PORT @ USD
58 - 71
Mar 1, 2025
PORT @ USD
80 - 82
Jan 23, 2025
USD @ PORT
82 - 92
Feb 15, 2024
PORT @ USD
66 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+34.5% more
San Diego: 17.2
vs
Portland: 11.3
Steals (L5)
+17.8% more
San Diego: 8.5
vs
Portland: 7.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+12.7%
San Diego: 38.9%
vs
Portland: 26.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.2%
San Diego: 44.6%
vs
Portland: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USD Score
79.0
74
PORT Score
74.0
87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.2 / 38.9
38.0 / 43.0
Assists
11.3 / 17.2
23.0 / 24.0
Blocks
1.7 / 1.4
2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 44.6
52.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
79.9 / 66.1
79.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
28.9 / 29.1
31.0 / 24.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.5
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
17.3 / 10.5
7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USD
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
PORT
Advantage
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USD
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
PORT
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PORT
USD
PORT
USD
ML
48%
16-17
58%
19-14
82%
27-6
70%
23-10
ATS
67%
22-11
55%
18-15
82%
28-6
70%
23-10
TTL
55%
18-15
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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