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SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

9-19  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 3:00 PM ET
Worthington Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA STATE

BOBCATSMTST

16-13  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
BOBCATS
0%
HORNETS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Montana State)
HornetsSAC (-3.5) 0 BobcatsMTST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

34.5%

Bobcats Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)

SAC By 1-7 points

20.1%

SAC By 8-14 points

9.3%

MTST By 1-7 points

27.4%

MTST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
68
SACRAMENTO STATE
72
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
68
SACRAMENTO STATE
78
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bobcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 SAC @ MTST 61 - 82
Jan 29, 2026 MTST @ SAC 80 - 83
Mar 1, 2025 MTST @ SAC 87 - 60
Jan 30, 2025 SAC @ MTST 58 - 70
Mar 12, 2024 SAC @ MTST 71 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +88.9% more
Montana State: 2.9 vs Sacramento State: 1.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
Montana State: 38.7% vs Sacramento State: 29.4%
Turnovers (L5) +9.2% more
Montana State: 9.5 vs Sacramento State: 8.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Montana State: 47.4% vs Sacramento State: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 68.0 61
MTST Score 72.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.7 / 29.4 39.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.9 / 12.1 11.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.9 / 1.5 5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.4 / 43.6 52.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 79.6 42.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 25.9 / 32.0 50.0 / 21.0
Steals 8.6 / 8.7 2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 8.7 13.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
MTST Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
MTST Advantage
16-12-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.5 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
SAC
MTST
SAC
ML
52% 16-15
57% 17-13
67% 20-10
87% 26-4
ATS
52% 16-15
73% 22-8
67% 20-10
87% 27-4
TTL
65% 20-11
60% 18-12
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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