Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Beacons @ Purple Aces VAL @ EVAN

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

17-13  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 4:00 PM ET
Ford Center
View Odds Details →

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

6-23  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
100%
📊
PURPLE ACES
0%
BEACONS --
PURPLE ACES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
EVANSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Evansville)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 Purple AcesEVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

46.0%

Purple Aces Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around EVAN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EVAN)

VAL By 1-7 points

24.3%

VAL By 8-14 points

13.7%

EVAN By 1-7 points

26.2%

EVAN By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
74
VALPARAISO
75
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
65
VALPARAISO
70
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Purple Aces Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Purple Aces Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Purple Aces (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Purple Aces (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 VAL @ EVAN 79 - 80
Feb 6, 2026 EVAN @ VAL 63 - 70
Feb 16, 2025 VAL @ EVAN 69 - 79
Jan 25, 2025 EVAN @ VAL 78 - 68
Feb 3, 2024 EVAN @ VAL 63 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +29.9% more
Evansville: 2.9 vs Valparaiso: 2.2
Turnovers (L5) +25.6% more
Evansville: 12.3 vs Valparaiso: 9.8
Rebounding (L5) +21.8% more
Valparaiso: 32.3 vs Evansville: 25.3
Assists (L5) +17.0% more
Valparaiso: 14.1 vs Evansville: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 74.0 79
EVAN Score 75.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 40.5 50.0 / 43.0
Assists 11.7 / 14.1 16.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.2 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 44.4 47.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 69.9 / 71.5 95.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 25.3 / 32.3 32.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.0 / 4.2 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 9.8 9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
EVAN
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
VAL
EVAN
VAL
ML
56% 18-14
48% 16-17
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
ATS
66% 21-11
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
TTL
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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