ST. BONAVENTURE
BONNIESSBU
15-13 | Road
58
GEORGE MASON
PATRIOTSGMU
21-7 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
0%
PATRIOTS
100%
BONNIES
--
PATRIOTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ST. BONAVENTURE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (St. Bonaventure)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SBU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SBU)
SBU By 1-7 points
23.0%
SBU By 8-14 points
27.2%
GMU By 1-7 points
10.7%
GMU By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Bonaventure
90
ST. BONAVENTURE
George Mason
80
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
St. Bonaventure
68
ST. BONAVENTURE
George Mason
72
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bonnies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Patriots
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bonnies (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Patriots (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
SBU @ GMU
63 - 57
Feb 28, 2026
SBU @ GMU
58 - 71
Jan 31, 2026
GMU @ SBU
77 - 73
Jan 21, 2025
GMU @ SBU
75 - 62
Jan 20, 2024
SBU @ GMU
60 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+60.8% more
St. Bonaventure: 7.8
vs
George Mason: 3.1
Blocks (L5)
+50.6% more
St. Bonaventure: 5.4
vs
George Mason: 2.7
Assists (L5)
+35.7% more
St. Bonaventure: 16.7
vs
George Mason: 10.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.3%
St. Bonaventure: 42.1%
vs
George Mason: 32.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SBU Score
90.0
58
GMU Score
80.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 42.1
43.0 / 37.0
Assists
10.8 / 16.7
18.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.7 / 5.4
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 50.9
48.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
74.9 / 79.1
64.0 / 33.0
Rebounding
32.0 / 34.9
34.0 / 41.0
Steals
3.1 / 7.8
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 11.2
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
GMU
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0
(39.4%)
Margin: 1.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
GMU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +5.1
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
SBU
GMU
SBU
ML
55%
18-15
59%
20-14
73%
24-9
61%
20-13
ATS
55%
18-15
50%
17-17
73%
24-9
61%
20-13
TTL
58%
19-14
38%
13-21
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
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