Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hoyas @ Musketeers GTWN @ XAV

GEORGETOWN

HOYASGTWN

13-15  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 1:30 PM ET
Cintas Center
View Odds Details →

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

13-15  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
HOYAS
100%
📊
MUSKETEERS
0%
HOYAS --
MUSKETEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
XAVIER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Xavier)
HoyasGTWN (-3.5) 0 MusketeersXAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hoyas Cover

46.0%

Musketeers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around XAV -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (XAV)

GTWN By 1-7 points

24.3%

GTWN By 8-14 points

13.7%

XAV By 1-7 points

26.2%

XAV By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
79
GEORGETOWN
80
XAVIER
Simulated Score
65
GEORGETOWN
78
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Musketeers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Musketeers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Musketeers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Musketeers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 GTWN @ XAV 84 - 91
Dec 20, 2025 XAV @ GTWN 80 - 77
Feb 4, 2025 GTWN @ XAV 69 - 74
Jan 3, 2025 XAV @ GTWN 63 - 69
Mar 2, 2024 XAV @ GTWN 98 - 93
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.7%
Xavier: 32.2% vs Georgetown: 24.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Xavier: 47.3% vs Georgetown: 40.0%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.3%
Xavier: 77.1% vs Georgetown: 71.8%
Steals (L5) +37.0% more
Georgetown: 5.4 vs Xavier: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GTWN Score 79.0 84
XAV Score 80.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.2 / 24.5 50.0 / 44.0
Assists 13.6 / 13.5 17.0 / 24.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.4 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 40.0 51.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 71.8 88.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 36.7 32.0 / 28.0
Steals 3.4 / 5.4 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 12.5 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GTWN Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GTWN
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.3
XAV Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GTWN
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.4
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
GTWN
XAV
GTWN
ML
58% 19-14
67% 22-11
72% 23-9
73% 22-8
ATS
73% 24-9
58% 19-14
72% 23-9
73% 22-8
TTL
39% 13-20
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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