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FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

14-14  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 12:00 PM ET
McCamish Pavilion
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA TECH

YELLOW JACKETSGT

11-17  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
SEMINOLES
0%
📊
YELLOW JACKETS
100%
SEMINOLES --
YELLOW JACKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
GEORGIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SeminolesFSU (-3.5) 0 Yellow JacketsGT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seminoles Cover

38.2%

Yellow Jackets Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GT +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GT)

FSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

FSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

GT By 1-7 points

21.6%

GT By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
86
FLORIDA STATE
83
GEORGIA TECH
Simulated Score
69
FLORIDA STATE
73
GEORGIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Seminoles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Yellow Jackets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yellow Jackets (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Yellow Jackets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 FSU @ GT 80 - 71
Jan 18, 2025 GT @ FSU 78 - 91
Mar 2, 2024 FSU @ GT 76 - 85
Jan 3, 2024 GT @ FSU 71 - 82
Mar 7, 2023 GT @ FSU 61 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.6% more
Florida State: 5.4 vs Georgia Tech: 2.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.6%
Florida State: 34.5% vs Georgia Tech: 28.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Florida State: 46.5% vs Georgia Tech: 43.4%
Turnovers (L5) +53.4% more
Georgia Tech: 14.6 vs Florida State: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FSU Score 86.0 80
GT Score 83.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.0 / 34.5 34.0 / 27.0
Assists 13.5 / 11.3 17.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.8 / 5.4 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 46.5 35.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 81.5 / 75.3 74.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 30.8 / 30.1 34.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.3 / 5.7 1.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 9.5 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
GT
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
GT
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
GT
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GT
FSU
GT
FSU
ML
61% 19-12
64% 21-12
63% 19-11
59% 19-13
ATS
55% 17-14
55% 18-15
63% 19-11
59% 19-13
TTL
61% 19-12
48% 16-17
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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