Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hawkeyes @ Nittany Lions IOWA @ PSU

IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

20-8  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 12:00 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

11-17  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
0%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
100%
HAWKEYES --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Iowa)
HawkeyesIOWA (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawkeyes Cover

81.6%

Nittany Lions Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IOWA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

IOWA By 1-7 points

24.3%

IOWA By 8-14 points

26.8%

PSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

PSU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
IOWA
65
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
75
IOWA
79
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawkeyes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawkeyes (+9) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u144.0 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 IOWA @ PSU 69 - 71
Jan 24, 2025 PSU @ IOWA 75 - 76
Feb 27, 2024 PSU @ IOWA 81 - 90
Feb 8, 2024 IOWA @ PSU 79 - 89
Jan 1, 2023 IOWA @ PSU 79 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +12.7% more
Iowa: 12.5 vs Penn State: 10.9
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
Iowa: 81.0% vs Penn State: 75.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Iowa: 28.5% vs Penn State: 24.4%
Turnovers (L5) +64.3% more
Penn State: 13.2 vs Iowa: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score 74.0 69
PSU Score 65.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.4 / 28.5 60.0 / 32.0
Assists 10.9 / 12.5 13.0 / 17.0
Blocks 1.8 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 47.5 64.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 81.0 75.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 28.8 / 29.6 24.0 / 24.0
Steals 7.3 / 5.3 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 8.0 15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
IOWA
PSU
IOWA
ML
72% 23-9
59% 22-15
56% 18-14
78% 28-8
ATS
72% 23-9
76% 28-9
56% 18-14
78% 28-8
TTL
66% 21-11
57% 21-16
100% 32-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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