Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aztecs @ Lobos SDSU @ UNM

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

19-8  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 2:00 PM ET
The Pit
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

21-7  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
AZTECS
0%
📊
LOBOS
100%
AZTECS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (San Diego State)
AztecsSDSU (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aztecs Cover

75.8%

Lobos Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SDSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

SDSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

SDSU By 8-14 points

25.3%

UNM By 1-7 points

15.3%

UNM By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
79
SAN DIEGO STATE
72
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
65
SAN DIEGO STATE
72
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aztecs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lobos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aztecs (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Lobos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 UNM @ SDSU 62 - 64
Feb 28, 2026 SDSU @ UNM 76 - 81
Jan 17, 2026 UNM @ SDSU 79 - 83
Feb 25, 2025 UNM @ SDSU 65 - 73
Jan 11, 2025 SDSU @ UNM 48 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +21.1% more
San Diego State: 3.8 vs New Mexico: 3.0
Assists (L5) +9.8% more
San Diego State: 14.4 vs New Mexico: 12.9
Free Throw % (L5) +8.8%
San Diego State: 77.6% vs New Mexico: 68.8%
Steals (L5) +16.2% more
New Mexico: 6.9 vs San Diego State: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SDSU Score 79.0 76
UNM Score 72.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 35.1 35.0 / 29.0
Assists 12.9 / 14.4 13.0 / 19.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.8 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 46.3 39.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 77.6 69.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 35.0 42.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.9 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 11.5 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SDSU
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SDSU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
SDSU
UNM
SDSU
ML
57% 21-16
62% 20-12
74% 25-9
72% 23-9
ATS
57% 21-16
69% 22-10
74% 25-9
72% 23-9
TTL
41% 15-22
75% 24-8
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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