CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
18-11 | Road
84
UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
9-21 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
MATADORS
100%
HIGHLANDERS
0%
MATADORS
--
HIGHLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UC RIVERSIDE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (UC Riverside)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCR -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCR)
CSUN By 1-7 points
4.8%
CSUN By 8-14 points
1.1%
UCR By 1-7 points
15.3%
UCR By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cal State Northridge
65
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
UC Riverside
80
UC RIVERSIDE
Simulated Score
Cal State Northridge
70
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
UC Riverside
73
UC RIVERSIDE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Highlanders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Highlanders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Highlanders (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Highlanders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u156.5
Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
CSUN @ UCR
84 - 95
Feb 7, 2026
UCR @ CSUN
74 - 88
Mar 6, 2025
CSUN @ UCR
79 - 94
Dec 5, 2024
UCR @ CSUN
68 - 64
Feb 3, 2024
UCR @ CSUN
70 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+18.7%
UC Riverside: 79.0%
vs
Cal State Northridge: 60.3%
Assists (L5)
+17.6% more
Cal State Northridge: 14.8
vs
UC Riverside: 12.2
Steals (L5)
+11.9% more
Cal State Northridge: 8.2
vs
UC Riverside: 7.2
Rebounding (L5)
+10.6% more
Cal State Northridge: 40.0
vs
UC Riverside: 35.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CSUN Score
65.0
84
UCR Score
80.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.8 / 30.7
26.0 / 19.0
Assists
12.2 / 14.8
19.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.9
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 45.5
44.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
79.0 / 60.3
80.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 40.0
44.0 / 44.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.2
5.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
12.9 / 12.3
6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSUN
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
UCR
Advantage
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCR
CSUN
UCR
CSUN
ML
66%
21-11
58%
19-14
75%
24-8
67%
22-11
ATS
59%
19-13
58%
19-14
75%
24-8
67%
22-11
TTL
66%
21-11
58%
19-14
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
