Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cowboys @ Bearcats OKST @ CIN

OKLAHOMA STATE

COWBOYSOKST

17-11  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 2:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Arena
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BEARCATSCIN

15-13  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
100%
📊
BEARCATS
0%
COWBOYS --
BEARCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Cincinnati)
CowboysOKST (-3.5) 0 BearcatsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

24.2%

Bearcats Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIN -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

OKST By 1-7 points

15.3%

OKST By 8-14 points

5.8%

CIN By 1-7 points

26.2%

CIN By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
70
OKLAHOMA STATE
77
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
68
OKLAHOMA STATE
72
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bearcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bearcats (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bearcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 OKST @ CIN 68 - 91
Mar 11, 2025 CIN @ OKST 87 - 68
Mar 8, 2025 CIN @ OKST 67 - 78
Feb 21, 2024 OKST @ CIN 80 - 76
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Cincinnati: 37.4% vs Oklahoma State: 33.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
Cincinnati: 74.3% vs Oklahoma State: 70.5%
Turnovers (L5) +31.4% more
Oklahoma State: 11.4 vs Cincinnati: 7.8
Rebounding (L5) +15.7% more
Oklahoma State: 38.0 vs Cincinnati: 32.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKST Score 70.0 68
CIN Score 77.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 33.5 41.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.3 / 14.1 24.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.4 0.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 43.1 47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 70.5 73.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 38.0 43.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.9 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 11.4 8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
CIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST Advantage
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
CIN
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.9
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
OKST
CIN
OKST
ML
67% 22-11
60% 21-14
74% 23-8
66% 21-11
ATS
64% 21-12
57% 20-15
74% 23-8
66% 21-11
TTL
67% 22-11
57% 20-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 0 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 4 minutes ago
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 5 hours, 59 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 18 hours, 50 minutes ago
Kansas Shakes Up Offensive Line: Amir Herring Promoted to Starti…
si 2 days, 5 hours ago