NC STATE
WOLFPACKNCSU
19-9 | Road
90
NOTRE DAME
FIGHTING IRISHND
12-16 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
WOLFPACK
0%
FIGHTING IRISH
100%
WOLFPACK
--
FIGHTING IRISH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ND +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)
NCSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
NCSU By 8-14 points
18.6%
ND By 1-7 points
23.0%
ND By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
NC State
74
NC STATE
Notre Dame
72
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
NC State
68
NC STATE
Notre Dame
72
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wolfpack
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Irish
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Irish (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim
Fighting Irish (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
NCSU @ ND
90 - 96
Jan 8, 2025
ND @ NCSU
65 - 66
Jan 3, 2024
NCSU @ ND
54 - 52
Jan 24, 2023
ND @ NCSU
82 - 85
Feb 5, 2022
ND @ NCSU
69 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.0% more
NC State: 4.6
vs
Notre Dame: 1.9
Steals (L5)
+40.6% more
NC State: 7.3
vs
Notre Dame: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.5%
NC State: 77.9%
vs
Notre Dame: 61.5%
Assists (L5)
+9.9% more
NC State: 13.6
vs
Notre Dame: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score
74.0
90
ND Score
72.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 34.9
48.0 / 29.0
Assists
12.3 / 13.6
15.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.9 / 4.6
0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 41.4
53.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
61.5 / 77.9
79.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 34.0
40.0 / 32.0
Steals
4.4 / 7.3
3.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 8.5
12.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
ND
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
Advantage
16-17-1
(48.5%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
ND
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0%
Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
NCSU
ND
NCSU
ML
65%
20-11
59%
20-14
77%
24-7
55%
18-15
ATS
55%
17-14
71%
24-10
77%
24-7
55%
18-15
TTL
68%
21-10
71%
24-10
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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