Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Bearkats MOST @ SHSU

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

13-15  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 5:30 PM ET
Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum
View Odds Details →

SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

20-8  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
BEARKATS
100%
BEARS --
BEARKATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 BearkatsSHSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

42.1%

Bearkats Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHSU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

MOST By 1-7 points

26.8%

MOST By 8-14 points

18.6%

SHSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

SHSU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
76
MISSOURI STATE
74
SAM HOUSTON
Simulated Score
68
MISSOURI STATE
72
SAM HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearkats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bearkats (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Bearkats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 MOST @ SHSU 81 - 86
Jan 28, 2026 SHSU @ MOST 80 - 71
Dec 9, 2023 SHSU @ MOST 60 - 69
Nov 17, 2021 MOST @ SHSU 77 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +15.5% more
Sam Houston: 16.9 vs Missouri State: 14.6
Blocks (L5) +13.2% more
Sam Houston: 3.0 vs Missouri State: 2.7
Field Goal % (L5) +10.1%
Sam Houston: 51.5% vs Missouri State: 41.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
Sam Houston: 45.4% vs Missouri State: 36.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 76.0 81
SHSU Score 74.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 45.4 / 36.1 46.0 / 29.0
Assists 16.9 / 14.6 11.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.0 / 2.7 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 41.5 50.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 79.7 / 72.2 79.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.7 / 35.5 36.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.4 / 7.3 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 12.2 8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
1%TICKETS99%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
3%MONEY97%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
SHSU Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHSU
MOST
SHSU
MOST
ML
55% 18-15
65% 22-12
74% 23-8
62% 21-13
ATS
64% 21-12
68% 23-11
74% 23-8
62% 21-13
TTL
48% 16-17
44% 15-19
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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