Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Raiders @ Norse WRST @ NKU

WRIGHT STATE

RAIDERSWRST

19-11  |  Road

92
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Truist Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN KENTUCKY

NORSENKU

18-12  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
0%
📊
NORSE
100%
RAIDERS --
NORSE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RaidersWRST (-3.5) 0 NorseNKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

42.1%

Norse Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NKU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)

WRST By 1-7 points

26.8%

WRST By 8-14 points

18.6%

NKU By 1-7 points

23.0%

NKU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
72
WRIGHT STATE
70
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
72
WRIGHT STATE
78
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raiders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Norse Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Norse (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Norse (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 NKU @ WRST 90 - 103
Feb 28, 2026 WRST @ NKU 92 - 91
Jan 24, 2026 NKU @ WRST 80 - 88
Feb 21, 2025 NKU @ WRST 80 - 76
Jan 18, 2025 WRST @ NKU 78 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +14.3% more
Wright State: 4.3 vs Northern Kentucky: 3.7
Free Throw % (L5) +10.3%
Wright State: 77.0% vs Northern Kentucky: 66.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.6%
Wright State: 40.8% vs Northern Kentucky: 33.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Wright State: 47.1% vs Northern Kentucky: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WRST Score 72.0 92
NKU Score 70.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 40.8 36.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.4 / 11.9 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.3 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 47.1 53.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 66.7 / 77.0 80.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 33.8 27.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.5 / 6.4 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 12.5 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WRST Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
NKU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WRST Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
NKU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WRST
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +3.3
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NKU
WRST
NKU
WRST
ML
53% 18-16
37% 13-22
65% 22-12
63% 22-13
ATS
56% 19-15
46% 16-19
65% 22-12
63% 22-13
TTL
68% 23-11
63% 22-13
100% 34-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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