WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
17-11 | Road
91
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
AGGIESNCAT
11-16 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
TRIBE
0%
AGGIES
100%
TRIBE
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (William & Mary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around W&M -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (W&M)
W&M By 1-7 points
15.3%
W&M By 8-14 points
25.3%
NCAT By 1-7 points
4.8%
NCAT By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
William & Mary
88
WILLIAM & MARY
North Carolina A&T
73
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Simulated Score
William & Mary
68
WILLIAM & MARY
North Carolina A&T
75
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tribe
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tribe (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u163.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u163.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
W&M @ NCAT
91 - 88
Jan 15, 2026
NCAT @ W&M
89 - 97
Jan 11, 2025
NCAT @ W&M
78 - 81
Mar 8, 2024
W&M @ NCAT
79 - 62
Jan 20, 2024
W&M @ NCAT
69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+51.8% more
William & Mary: 7.9
vs
North Carolina A&T: 3.8
Assists (L5)
+44.1% more
William & Mary: 17.7
vs
North Carolina A&T: 9.9
Blocks (L5)
+35.5% more
William & Mary: 4.8
vs
North Carolina A&T: 3.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.1%
William & Mary: 75.5%
vs
North Carolina A&T: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
W&M Score
88.0
91
NCAT Score
73.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 26.5
35.0 / 24.0
Assists
9.9 / 17.7
21.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.1 / 4.8
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 48.4
64.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 75.5
71.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 32.7
35.0 / 22.0
Steals
3.8 / 7.9
2.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 10.4
18.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
W&M
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
NCAT
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
W&M
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
NCAT
Advantage
16-12-0
(57.1%)
Margin: -2.8
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCAT
W&M
NCAT
W&M
ML
52%
14-13
55%
17-14
63%
17-10
61%
19-12
ATS
63%
17-10
63%
19-11-1
64%
18-10
61%
19-12
TTL
69%
18-8-1
61%
19-12
100%
28-0
100%
31-0
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