Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rams @ Spartans CSU @ SJSU

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

18-10  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 5:00 PM ET
Provident Credit Union Event Center
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

8-20  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
RAMS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RamsCSU (-3.5) 0 SpartansSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rams Cover

38.2%

Spartans Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SJSU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

CSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

CSU By 8-14 points

20.1%

SJSU By 1-7 points

21.6%

SJSU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
79
COLORADO STATE
76
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
65
COLORADO STATE
78
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rams Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 CSU @ SJSU 85 - 73
Feb 7, 2026 SJSU @ CSU 57 - 65
Mar 4, 2025 SJSU @ CSU 56 - 83
Dec 31, 2024 CSU @ SJSU 72 - 50
Mar 13, 2024 SJSU @ CSU 62 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +29.6% more
Colorado State: 16.0 vs San José State: 11.3
Turnovers (L5) +23.1% more
Colorado State: 10.8 vs San José State: 8.3
Blocks (L5) +10.1% more
Colorado State: 2.8 vs San José State: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +10.0% more
Colorado State: 32.7 vs San José State: 29.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSU Score 79.0 85
SJSU Score 76.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.9 / 36.6 33.0 / 53.0
Assists 11.3 / 16.0 14.0 / 19.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.8 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 49.3 45.0 / 62.0
Free Throw % 84.8 / 77.9 72.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 29.4 / 32.7 21.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.5 / 5.6 6.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 8.3 / 10.8 6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
CSU
SJSU
CSU
ML
73% 24-9
56% 19-15
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
ATS
73% 24-9
62% 21-13
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
TTL
61% 20-13
56% 19-15
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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