Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Huskies SFA @ HCU

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN

LUMBERJACKSSFA

25-4  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 4:30 PM ET
Sharp Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON CHRISTIAN

HUSKIESHCU

11-18  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
0%
📊
HUSKIES
100%
LUMBERJACKS --
HUSKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LumberjacksSFA (-3.5) 0 HuskiesHCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

42.1%

Huskies Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HCU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HCU)

SFA By 1-7 points

26.8%

SFA By 8-14 points

18.6%

HCU By 1-7 points

23.0%

HCU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
67
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
65
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
82
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
70
HOUSTON CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lumberjacks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lumberjacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Huskies (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Lumberjacks (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 SFA @ HCU 77 - 56
Jan 10, 2026 HCU @ SFA 67 - 85
Feb 24, 2025 SFA @ HCU 56 - 72
Jan 6, 2025 HCU @ SFA 83 - 73
Dec 18, 2019 HCU @ SFA 68 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +17.4% more
Stephen F. Austin: 7.4 vs Houston Christian: 6.1
Blocks (L5) +9.6% more
Stephen F. Austin: 4.0 vs Houston Christian: 3.6
Assists (L5) +8.8% more
Stephen F. Austin: 13.2 vs Houston Christian: 12.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.6%
Stephen F. Austin: 31.1% vs Houston Christian: 26.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFA Score 67.0 77
HCU Score 65.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.5 / 31.1 6.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.1 / 13.2 12.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.0 9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 42.0 41.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 73.3 64.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 33.0 / 35.1 30.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.1 / 7.4 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 7.5 10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
99%TICKETS1%
98%MONEY2%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA Advantage
28-6-0 (82.4%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
HCU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA Advantage
23-9-0 (71.9%)
Margin: 10.0 ATS +/-: +3.1
HCU
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.9
HCU
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HCU
SFA
HCU
SFA
ML
68% 21-10
59% 17-12
81% 25-6
79% 23-6
ATS
58% 18-13
59% 17-12
81% 26-6
79% 23-6
TTL
68% 21-10
62% 18-11
100% 32-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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