Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Runnin' Bulldogs @ Spartans GWEB @ UPST

GARDNER-WEBB

RUNNIN' BULLDOGSGWEB

3-27  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 2:00 PM ET
G.B. Hodge Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE

SPARTANSUPST

12-18  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
RUNNIN' BULLDOGS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
RUNNIN' BULLDOGS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
GARDNER-WEBB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Gardner-Webb)
Runnin' BulldogsGWEB (-3.5) 0 SpartansUPST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Runnin' Bulldogs Cover

94.5%

Spartans Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GWEB -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GWEB)

GWEB By 1-7 points

13.7%

GWEB By 8-14 points

24.3%

UPST By 1-7 points

4.0%

UPST By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
80
GARDNER-WEBB
64
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Simulated Score
70
GARDNER-WEBB
74
SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Runnin' Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Runnin' Bulldogs (-12.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 4, 2026 GWEB @ UPST 65 - 64
Feb 28, 2026 GWEB @ UPST 61 - 71
Jan 23, 2026 UPST @ GWEB 65 - 67
Mar 5, 2025 UPST @ GWEB 63 - 83
Feb 15, 2025 GWEB @ UPST 96 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Gardner-Webb: 48.0% vs South Carolina Upstate: 41.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Gardner-Webb: 31.8% vs South Carolina Upstate: 27.8%
Blocks (L5) +166.1% more
South Carolina Upstate: 6.0 vs Gardner-Webb: 2.2
Rebounding (L5) +39.6% more
South Carolina Upstate: 37.6 vs Gardner-Webb: 27.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GWEB Score 80.0 61
UPST Score 64.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.8 / 31.8 20.0 / 35.0
Assists 11.6 / 11.0 16.0 / 8.0
Blocks 6.0 / 2.2 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 48.0 46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 64.7 90.0 / 38.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 27.0 38.0 / 31.0
Steals 7.2 / 6.3 9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 10.5 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GWEB
4-29-0 (12.1%)
Margin: -17.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
UPST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GWEB Advantage
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -17.3 ATS +/-: -3.0
UPST
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
GWEB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: -1.0
UPST
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UPST
GWEB
UPST
GWEB
ML
61% 19-12
73% 22-8
83% 25-5
63% 19-11
ATS
61% 19-12
73% 22-8
83% 25-5
63% 19-11
TTL
52% 16-15
53% 16-14
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Michigan State Lands Five-Star Point Guard Antonio Pemberton: Wh…
yahoo 2 weeks, 5 days ago
Brady Pretzlaff's Long Road Back to Spartan Stadium: A Promise F…
yahoo 3 weeks, 5 days ago
Virginia Set for Friday Night Blowout Against Norfolk State, Ana…
si 4 weeks ago
Former Michigan State Forward Jaxon Kohler Finds New Home at BYU
newspub_live 1 month, 2 weeks ago
Dec 6, 2025; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Duke Blue Devils cente…
si 2 months, 1 week ago