Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Blue Raiders NMSU @ MTSU

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

13-14  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Murphy Center
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

14-14  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
AGGIES --
BLUE RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
AggiesNMSU (-3.5) 0 Blue RaidersMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

18.4%

Blue Raiders Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTSU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

NMSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

NMSU By 8-14 points

4.0%

MTSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

MTSU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
77
NEW MEXICO STATE
86
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
70
NEW MEXICO STATE
78
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Blue Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u163.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u163.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 NMSU @ MTSU 85 - 86
Jan 10, 2026 MTSU @ NMSU 59 - 55
Feb 27, 2025 MTSU @ NMSU 71 - 66
Jan 30, 2025 NMSU @ MTSU 61 - 57
Feb 15, 2024 NMSU @ MTSU 69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +73.5% more
Middle Tennessee: 6.7 vs New Mexico State: 3.9
Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
Middle Tennessee: 45.2% vs New Mexico State: 39.5%
Blocks (L5) +29.2% more
New Mexico State: 3.6 vs Middle Tennessee: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +11.6% more
New Mexico State: 39.6 vs Middle Tennessee: 35.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 77.0 85
MTSU Score 86.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.3 / 28.1 32.0 / 28.0
Assists 13.8 / 13.9 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.6 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 39.5 51.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 76.3 78.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 39.6 39.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.7 / 3.9 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 9.5 15.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
MTSU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
NMSU
MTSU
NMSU
ML
56% 18-14
61% 19-12
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
ATS
75% 24-8
65% 20-11
69% 22-10
67% 20-10
TTL
53% 17-15
45% 14-17
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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