Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Flash @ Blue Devils SFPA @ CCSU

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

7-23  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Detrick Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL CONNECTICUT

BLUE DEVILSCCSU

17-11  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
0%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
100%
RED FLASH --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red FlashSFPA (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsCCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Flash Cover

46.0%

Blue Devils Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CCSU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCSU)

SFPA By 1-7 points

26.2%

SFPA By 8-14 points

16.9%

CCSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

CCSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
69
SAINT FRANCIS
68
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Simulated Score
68
SAINT FRANCIS
72
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Flash Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 SFPA @ CCSU 64 - 69
Jan 17, 2026 CCSU @ SFPA 98 - 90
Mar 11, 2025 SFPA @ CCSU 46 - 43
Feb 15, 2025 SFPA @ CCSU 67 - 83
Jan 3, 2025 CCSU @ SFPA 74 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +18.7% more
Saint Francis: 5.4 vs Central Connecticut: 4.4
Turnovers (L5) +16.6% more
Saint Francis: 12.7 vs Central Connecticut: 10.6
Blocks (L5) +54.1% more
Central Connecticut: 3.2 vs Saint Francis: 2.1
Free Throw % (L5) +14.0%
Central Connecticut: 81.0% vs Saint Francis: 67.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score 69.0 64
CCSU Score 68.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 35.4 33.0 / 19.0
Assists 12.5 / 11.6 13.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.1 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 47.0 50.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 81.0 / 67.0 91.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 32.2 33.0 / 31.0
Steals 4.4 / 5.4 7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 12.7 13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
CCSU Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
CCSU Advantage
14-13-1 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
CCSU
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCSU
SFPA
CCSU
SFPA
ML
57% 17-13
68% 21-10
57% 17-13
67% 20-10
ATS
63% 19-11
68% 21-10
57% 17-13
67% 20-10
TTL
60% 18-12
58% 18-13
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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