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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

31-23-7  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Bell Centre
View Odds Details →

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

32-17-9  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Charlie Lindgren
GOALTENDER

Charlie Lindgren

#79 | Goaltender
@
Jakub Dobes
GOALTENDER

Jakub Dobes

#75 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Charlie Lindgren None-None 4.08 0.826 --
Jakub Dobes None-None 2.00 0.931 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.08 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.826 Save % Ldr 0.931
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
📊
CANADIENS
0%
CAPITALS --
CANADIENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MONTREAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Montreal)
CapitalsWSH (-3.5) 0 CanadiensMTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Capitals Cover

30.9%

Canadiens Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around MTL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTL)

WSH By 1 goal

12.1%

WSH By 2-3 goals

9.3%

MTL By 1 goal

19.7%

MTL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
4
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
4
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Canadiens Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Canadiens Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Canadiens (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Canadiens (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 WSH @ MTL 2 - 6
Jan 13, 2026 MTL @ WSH 2 - 3
Nov 20, 2025 WSH @ MTL 8 - 4
Apr 30, 2025 MTL @ WSH 1 - 4
Apr 27, 2025 WSH @ MTL 5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +26.0% more
Montreal: 5.2 vs Washington: 4.1
Power Play % (L5) +17.1%
Montreal: 31.0% vs Washington: 13.9%
Faceoff % (L5) +6.0%
Montreal: 56.1% vs Washington: 50.1%
Blocked Shots (L5) +11.9% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Montreal: 14.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 2
MTL Score 4.0 6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
88%MONEY12%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
WSH
MTL
WSH
ML
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
ATS
67% 2-1
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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