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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

30-15-12  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 12:30 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

22-29-7  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Kris Letang
GOALTENDER

Kris Letang

#58 | Defense
@
Igor Shesterkin
GOALTENDER

Igor Shesterkin

#31 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Kris Letang None-None -- -- --
Igor Shesterkin None-None 1.85 0.941 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 1.85
-- Save % 0.941
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
📊
RANGERS
100%
PENGUINS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PenguinsPIT (-3.5) 0 RangersNYR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

97.7%

Rangers Cover

2.3%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1 goal

6.6%

PIT By 2-3 goals

29.6%

NYR By 1 goal

0.9%

NYR By 2-3 goals

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
PITTSBURGH
1
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
2
PITTSBURGH
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penguins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penguins (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -4.0
D
Sim Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o5.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 PIT @ NYR 2 - 3
Jan 31, 2026 NYR @ PIT 5 - 6
Oct 11, 2025 NYR @ PIT 6 - 1
Oct 7, 2025 PIT @ NYR 3 - 0
Feb 23, 2025 NYR @ PIT 5 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +38.6% more
Pittsburgh: 6.1 vs New York: 3.8
Shots on Goal (L5) +34.2% more
Pittsburgh: 30.5 vs New York: 20.1
Hits (L5) +36.1% more
New York: 26.2 vs Pittsburgh: 19.2
Blocked Shots (L5) +31.9% more
New York: 14.7 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 5.0 2
NYR Score 1.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
77%MONEY23%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
PIT
NYR
PIT
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
ATS
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
TTL
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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