Home / NBA Projections NBA / Grizzlies @ Mavericks MEM @ DAL

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

21-36  |  Road

124
FINAL
Fri, Feb 27 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

21-37  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
MAVERICKS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Dallas)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

3.6%

Mavericks Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAL -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

MEM By 1-7 points

2.7%

MEM By 8-14 points

0.5%

DAL By 1-7 points

10.7%

DAL By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
107
MEMPHIS
125
DALLAS
Simulated Score
110
MEMPHIS
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mavericks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mavericks (-5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim u240.5 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 DAL @ MEM 120 - 112
Feb 27, 2026 MEM @ DAL 124 - 105
Nov 22, 2025 MEM @ DAL 102 - 96
Nov 7, 2025 DAL @ MEM 104 - 118
Apr 18, 2025 DAL @ MEM 106 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +17.3% more
Dallas: 42.5 vs Memphis: 36.2
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Dallas: 53.2% vs Memphis: 48.4%
Steals (L5) +43.1% more
Memphis: 11.3 vs Dallas: 6.4
Blocks (L5) +28.1% more
Memphis: 4.5 vs Dallas: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 107.0 124
DAL Score 125.0 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 37.5 28.0 / 38.0
Assists 24.4 / 30.0 24.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.5 4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 53.2 / 48.4 42.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 75.8 67.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 42.5 / 36.2 46.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.4 / 11.3 4.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 15.4 21.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
MEM
DAL
MEM
ML
62% 63-39
57% 59-44
54% 44-37
50% 41-41
ATS
67% 68-34
63% 65-38
54% 44-37
50% 41-41
TTL
59% 60-41-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 81-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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