Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Gaels GONZ @ SMC

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

28-2  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 10:30 PM ET
University Credit Union Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

26-4  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
GAELS
100%
BULLDOGS --
GAELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Gonzaga)
BulldogsGONZ (-3.5) 0 GaelsSMC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

91.9%

Gaels Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GONZ -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)

GONZ By 1-7 points

16.9%

GONZ By 8-14 points

26.2%

SMC By 1-7 points

5.8%

SMC By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
82
GONZAGA
68
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
72
GONZAGA
78
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gaels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Gaels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 GONZ @ SMC 59 - 70
Jan 31, 2026 SMC @ GONZ 65 - 73
Mar 11, 2025 GONZ @ SMC 58 - 51
Feb 22, 2025 SMC @ GONZ 74 - 67
Feb 1, 2025 GONZ @ SMC 58 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.6% more
Gonzaga: 9.2 vs Saint Mary's: 6.6
Assists (L5) +14.7% more
Gonzaga: 18.1 vs Saint Mary's: 15.5
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Gonzaga: 50.6% vs Saint Mary's: 48.1%
Turnovers (L5) +44.1% more
Saint Mary's: 11.3 vs Gonzaga: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GONZ Score 82.0 59
SMC Score 68.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.8 / 30.3 48.0 / 29.0
Assists 15.5 / 18.1 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.6 / 4.5 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 50.6 35.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 75.9 73.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 43.4 / 33.9 42.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.6 / 9.2 5.0 / 1.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 7.8 6.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
SMC
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GONZ
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
GONZ
SMC
GONZ
ML
56% 18-14
71% 25-10
82% 23-5
69% 20-9
ATS
62% 20-12
69% 24-11
83% 24-5
69% 20-9
TTL
53% 17-15
57% 20-15
100% 29-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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