Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Texans @ Lancers TAR @ CBU

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

14-15  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 9:00 PM ET
Dale E. and Sarah Ann Fowler Events Center
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA BAPTIST

LANCERSCBU

20-8  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
LANCERS
100%
TEXANS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TexansTAR (-3.5) 0 LancersCBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

38.2%

Lancers Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CBU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CBU)

TAR By 1-7 points

27.2%

TAR By 8-14 points

20.1%

CBU By 1-7 points

21.6%

CBU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
67
TARLETON STATE
64
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Simulated Score
68
TARLETON STATE
72
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lancers (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TAR @ CBU 67 - 82
Feb 5, 2026 TAR @ CBU 55 - 56
Jan 3, 2026 CBU @ TAR 76 - 81
Mar 13, 2025 TAR @ CBU 51 - 55
Mar 6, 2025 TAR @ CBU 48 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +56.4% more
Tarleton State: 8.7 vs California Baptist: 3.8
Assists (L5) +19.8% more
Tarleton State: 11.6 vs California Baptist: 9.3
Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
Tarleton State: 44.1% vs California Baptist: 38.5%
Rebounding (L5) +22.8% more
California Baptist: 40.0 vs Tarleton State: 32.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 67.0 67
CBU Score 64.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.4 / 34.9 35.0 / 38.0
Assists 9.3 / 11.6 8.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.3 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 38.5 / 44.1 42.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 70.8 83.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 32.6 33.0 / 38.0
Steals 3.8 / 8.7 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 11.9 9.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
CBU Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
CBU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
CBU
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CBU
TAR
CBU
TAR
ML
50% 17-17
59% 19-13
76% 25-8
66% 21-11
ATS
53% 18-16
69% 22-10
76% 25-8
66% 21-11
TTL
47% 16-18
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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