ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
21-7 | Road
77
FLORIDA
GATORSFLA
22-6 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
RAZORBACKS
100%
GATORS
0%
RAZORBACKS
--
GATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FLA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
ARK By 1-7 points
24.3%
ARK By 8-14 points
13.7%
FLA By 1-7 points
26.2%
FLA By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas
81
ARKANSAS
Florida
82
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Arkansas
72
ARKANSAS
Florida
75
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Gators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gators
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Gators (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Gators (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u168.5
Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u168.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
ARK @ FLA
77 - 111
Jan 11, 2025
FLA @ ARK
71 - 63
Jan 13, 2024
ARK @ FLA
68 - 90
Feb 18, 2023
FLA @ ARK
65 - 84
Feb 22, 2022
ARK @ FLA
82 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+72.3% more
Florida: 12.4
vs
Arkansas: 7.2
Rebounding (L5)
+13.4% more
Florida: 38.6
vs
Arkansas: 34.0
Steals (L5)
+11.9% more
Florida: 7.5
vs
Arkansas: 6.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Florida: 39.5%
vs
Arkansas: 34.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARK Score
81.0
77
FLA Score
82.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.5 / 34.6
42.0 / 31.0
Assists
17.7 / 17.5
17.0 / 10.0
Blocks
5.8 / 5.7
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
53.5 / 52.0
57.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
77.8 / 81.9
78.0 / 54.0
Rebounding
38.6 / 34.0
51.0 / 31.0
Steals
7.5 / 6.7
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 7.2
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
FLA
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
FLA
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 15.6
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
ARK
FLA
ARK
ML
77%
27-8
68%
25-12
63%
22-13
81%
25-6
ATS
69%
24-11
70%
26-11
63%
22-13
81%
25-6
TTL
63%
22-13
57%
21-16
100%
35-0
100%
31-0
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