JACKSONVILLE
DOLPHINSJAX
11-19 | Road
85
NORTH FLORIDA
OSPREYSUNF
7-23 | Home
61
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
0%
OSPREYS
100%
DOLPHINS
--
OSPREYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
NORTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNF +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNF)
JAX By 1-7 points
26.2%
JAX By 8-14 points
25.3%
UNF By 1-7 points
15.3%
UNF By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Jacksonville
73
JACKSONVILLE
North Florida
66
NORTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
Jacksonville
70
JACKSONVILLE
North Florida
72
NORTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dolphins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ospreys
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ospreys (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Ospreys (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u170.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u170.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
JAX @ UNF
85 - 61
Feb 14, 2026
UNF @ JAX
56 - 63
Feb 20, 2025
JAX @ UNF
73 - 77
Feb 1, 2025
UNF @ JAX
81 - 78
Feb 23, 2024
UNF @ JAX
50 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+74.3% more
Jacksonville: 2.3
vs
North Florida: 0.6
Steals (L5)
+35.2% more
Jacksonville: 5.3
vs
North Florida: 3.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.5%
Jacksonville: 79.2%
vs
North Florida: 72.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Jacksonville: 45.3%
vs
North Florida: 42.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
JAX Score
73.0
85
UNF Score
66.0
61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.0 / 31.8
24.0 / 40.0
Assists
11.4 / 10.3
7.0 / 20.0
Blocks
0.6 / 2.3
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.8 / 45.3
36.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 79.2
65.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 33.0
21.0 / 46.0
Steals
3.4 / 5.3
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 7.9
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
Advantage
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-: -1.3
UNF
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-: -1.3
UNF
Advantage
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNF
JAX
UNF
JAX
ML
69%
22-10
74%
23-8
66%
21-11
60%
18-12
ATS
69%
22-10
65%
20-11
66%
21-11
61%
19-12
TTL
66%
21-11
65%
20-11
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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