Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Raiders @ Cyclones TTU @ ISU

TEXAS TECH

RED RAIDERSTTU

21-7  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 4:00 PM ET
Hilton Coliseum
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

24-4  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
RED RAIDERS
0%
📊
CYCLONES
100%
RED RAIDERS --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
TEXAS TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Texas Tech)
Red RaidersTTU (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Raiders Cover

86.4%

Cyclones Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TTU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TTU)

TTU By 1-7 points

21.6%

TTU By 8-14 points

27.4%

ISU By 1-7 points

9.3%

ISU By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
76
TEXAS TECH
65
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
68
TEXAS TECH
72
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Raiders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cyclones Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Raiders (-10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Cyclones (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 ISU @ TTU 75 - 53
Feb 28, 2026 TTU @ ISU 82 - 73
Jan 11, 2025 ISU @ TTU 85 - 84
Feb 17, 2024 TTU @ ISU 74 - 82
Jan 30, 2023 ISU @ TTU 77 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +59.4% more
Texas Tech: 5.8 vs Iowa State: 2.3
Rebounding (L5) +17.9% more
Texas Tech: 38.8 vs Iowa State: 31.9
Turnovers (L5) +17.6% more
Texas Tech: 10.9 vs Iowa State: 9.0
Free Throw % (L5) +14.4%
Texas Tech: 77.5% vs Iowa State: 63.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TTU Score 76.0 82
ISU Score 65.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 41.3 33.0 / 48.0
Assists 15.1 / 15.0 14.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.3 / 5.8 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 49.1 39.0 / 58.0
Free Throw % 63.1 / 77.5 70.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 38.8 29.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.5 / 3.7 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.0 / 10.9 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TTU
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TTU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TTU
15-19-0
O: 44.1% / U: 55.9% Total +/-: -1.6
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
TTU
ISU
TTU
ML
57% 21-16
62% 21-13
76% 26-8
71% 22-9
ATS
62% 23-14
65% 22-12
76% 26-8
71% 22-9
TTL
54% 20-17
59% 20-14
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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