Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Utes @ Sun Devils UTAH @ ASU

UTAH

UTESUTAH

10-18  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 3:30 PM ET
Desert Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

14-14  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
UTES
0%
📊
SUN DEVILS
100%
UTES --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Utah)
UtesUTAH (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utes Cover

88.5%

Sun Devils Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTAH -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

UTAH By 1-7 points

20.1%

UTAH By 8-14 points

27.2%

ASU By 1-7 points

8.0%

ASU By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
90
UTAH
78
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
68
UTAH
75
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Utes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Utes (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 UTAH @ ASU 60 - 73
Feb 4, 2026 ASU @ UTAH 71 - 63
Mar 1, 2025 ASU @ UTAH 73 - 99
Mar 13, 2024 ASU @ UTAH 57 - 90
Feb 10, 2024 ASU @ UTAH 85 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.7% more
Utah: 13.8 vs Arizona State: 11.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Utah: 31.9% vs Arizona State: 29.8%
Steals (L5) +35.3% more
Arizona State: 6.3 vs Utah: 4.7
Blocks (L5) +15.7% more
Arizona State: 4.5 vs Utah: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 90.0 60
ASU Score 78.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 31.9 53.0 / 36.0
Assists 15.1 / 13.5 14.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.9 9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 44.1 49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 76.7 83.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 32.2 31.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.7 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 13.8 5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
ASU Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -0.5
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
UTAH
ASU
UTAH
ML
52% 17-16
56% 18-14
68% 21-10
67% 20-10
ATS
52% 17-16
56% 18-14
68% 21-10
67% 20-10
TTL
64% 21-12
41% 13-19
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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