VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
25-3 | Road
51
DUKE
BLUE DEVILSDUKE
26-2 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
BLUE DEVILS
100%
CAVALIERS
--
BLUE DEVILS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DUKE +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)
UVA By 1-7 points
25.3%
UVA By 8-14 points
26.2%
DUKE By 1-7 points
13.7%
DUKE By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia
77
VIRGINIA
Duke
69
DUKE
Simulated Score
Virginia
66
VIRGINIA
Duke
71
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cavaliers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Devils
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Devils (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim
Blue Devils (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
UVA @ DUKE
70 - 74
Feb 28, 2026
UVA @ DUKE
51 - 77
Feb 17, 2025
DUKE @ UVA
80 - 62
Mar 2, 2024
UVA @ DUKE
48 - 73
Mar 11, 2023
DUKE @ UVA
59 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+72.2% more
Virginia: 8.6
vs
Duke: 2.4
Turnovers (L5)
+21.0% more
Virginia: 11.5
vs
Duke: 9.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Virginia: 41.5%
vs
Duke: 38.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.0%
Virginia: 78.4%
vs
Duke: 76.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVA Score
77.0
51
DUKE Score
69.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.1 / 41.5
50.0 / 20.0
Assists
18.0 / 17.1
17.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.4 / 8.6
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.8 / 49.7
49.0 / 29.0
Free Throw %
76.4 / 78.4
93.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
42.3 / 38.3
37.0 / 29.0
Steals
8.0 / 7.3
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 11.5
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
DUKE
Advantage
35-3-0
(92.1%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
DUKE
Advantage
20-18-0
(52.6%)
Margin: 18.0
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
UVA
DUKE
UVA
ML
71%
27-11
67%
24-12
73%
24-9
72%
26-10
ATS
79%
30-8
75%
27-9
73%
24-9
72%
26-10
TTL
47%
18-20
53%
19-17
100%
33-0
100%
36-0
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