SIENA
SAINTSSIE
19-10 | Road
58
FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
18-11 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
100%
STAGS
0%
SAINTS
--
STAGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
SIE By 1-7 points
23.0%
SIE By 8-14 points
12.2%
FAIR By 1-7 points
26.8%
FAIR By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Siena
76
SIENA
Fairfield
78
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
Siena
69
SIENA
Fairfield
75
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stags
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stags
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stags (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Stags (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
FAIR @ SIE
61 - 76
Feb 27, 2026
SIE @ FAIR
58 - 72
Jan 19, 2026
FAIR @ SIE
77 - 85
Mar 6, 2025
FAIR @ SIE
64 - 68
Feb 25, 2024
SIE @ FAIR
64 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+83.9% more
Fairfield: 7.3
vs
Siena: 4.0
Blocks (L5)
+75.2% more
Fairfield: 4.5
vs
Siena: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+20.7% more
Fairfield: 13.9
vs
Siena: 11.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.4%
Fairfield: 33.8%
vs
Siena: 27.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIE Score
76.0
58
FAIR Score
78.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.8 / 27.4
29.0 / 17.0
Assists
13.9 / 11.5
8.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.5 / 2.5
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.1 / 48.5
52.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
72.3 / 79.0
46.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 33.3
49.0 / 24.0
Steals
7.3 / 4.0
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 11.3
17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIE
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
FAIR
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIE
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
FAIR
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
SIE
FAIR
SIE
ML
55%
18-15
66%
23-12
61%
20-13
48%
16-17
ATS
48%
16-17
66%
23-12
61%
20-13
48%
16-17
TTL
48%
16-17
54%
19-16
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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