Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Bobcats APP @ TXST

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

19-11  |  Road

57
FINAL
Fri, Feb 27 • 8:00 PM ET
Strahan Arena at the University Events Center
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

BOBCATSTXST

18-12  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
BOBCATS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
BOBCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Texas State)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 BobcatsTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

34.5%

Bobcats Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

APP By 1-7 points

20.1%

APP By 8-14 points

9.3%

TXST By 1-7 points

27.4%

TXST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
74
APP STATE
78
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
68
APP STATE
75
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bobcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bobcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bobcats (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Bobcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 27, 2026 APP @ TXST 57 - 60
Jan 4, 2025 TXST @ APP 61 - 72
Feb 7, 2024 APP @ TXST 56 - 63
Feb 16, 2023 TXST @ APP 75 - 82
Feb 3, 2022 APP @ TXST 66 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.9% more
Texas State: 3.5 vs App State: 2.6
Steals (L5) +25.3% more
Texas State: 6.4 vs App State: 5.1
Turnovers (L5) +23.9% more
Texas State: 12.0 vs App State: 9.7
Assists (L5) +12.2% more
Texas State: 13.4 vs App State: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 74.0 57
TXST Score 78.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.9 / 31.0 33.0 / 17.0
Assists 13.4 / 12.0 9.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.6 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 46.3 47.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 70.3 60.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 37.5 28.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.4 / 5.1 6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 9.7 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
TXST
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
TXST
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
APP
TXST
APP
ML
42% 13-18
62% 20-12
83% 25-5
59% 19-13
ATS
48% 15-16
59% 19-13
84% 26-5
59% 19-13
TTL
65% 20-11
69% 22-10
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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