OLD DOMINION
MONARCHSODU
10-20 | Road
81
GEORGIA STATE
PANTHERSGAST
10-20 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
MONARCHS
0%
PANTHERS
100%
MONARCHS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Old Dominion)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ODU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)
ODU By 1-7 points
16.9%
ODU By 8-14 points
26.2%
GAST By 1-7 points
5.8%
GAST By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Old Dominion
84
OLD DOMINION
Georgia State
70
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
Old Dominion
68
OLD DOMINION
Georgia State
72
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Monarchs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Monarchs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 27, 2026
ODU @ GAST
81 - 73
Feb 14, 2026
GAST @ ODU
55 - 78
Feb 22, 2025
GAST @ ODU
76 - 70
Feb 13, 2025
ODU @ GAST
75 - 97
Feb 17, 2024
GAST @ ODU
68 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+25.3% more
Old Dominion: 12.2
vs
Georgia State: 9.1
Turnovers (L5)
+18.3% more
Old Dominion: 11.1
vs
Georgia State: 9.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.5%
Old Dominion: 48.1%
vs
Georgia State: 38.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Old Dominion: 35.2%
vs
Georgia State: 32.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ODU Score
84.0
81
GAST Score
70.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.0 / 35.2
15.0 / 29.0
Assists
9.1 / 12.2
11.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.0
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
38.6 / 48.1
38.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
83.0 / 79.8
65.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
33.2 / 32.3
35.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.8 / 6.1
12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 11.1
6.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ODU
Advantage
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +0.7
GAST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ODU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -1.7
ATS +/-: +0.7
GAST
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +3.0
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
ODU
GAST
ODU
ML
56%
18-14
52%
17-16
71%
22-9
67%
22-11
ATS
59%
19-13
70%
23-10
71%
22-9
67%
22-11
TTL
59%
19-13
70%
23-10
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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