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MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

14-15  |  Road

69
FINAL
Fri, Feb 27 • 7:00 PM ET
William H. Pitt Center
View Odds Details →

SACRED HEART

PIONEERSSHU

12-18  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
PIONEERS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
PIONEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SACRED HEART
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 PioneersSHU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

46.0%

Pioneers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHU)

MSM By 1-7 points

26.2%

MSM By 8-14 points

16.9%

SHU By 1-7 points

24.3%

SHU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
73
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
72
SACRED HEART
Simulated Score
69
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
72
SACRED HEART
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pioneers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pioneers (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Pioneers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 27, 2026 MSM @ SHU 69 - 77
Dec 3, 2025 SHU @ MSM 87 - 80
Jan 12, 2025 SHU @ MSM 71 - 73
Feb 24, 2022 MSM @ SHU 65 - 77
Jan 21, 2022 SHU @ MSM 59 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +59.5% more
Mount St. Mary's: 8.1 vs Sacred Heart: 3.3
Turnovers (L5) +19.9% more
Mount St. Mary's: 14.2 vs Sacred Heart: 11.4
Assists (L5) +18.3% more
Mount St. Mary's: 14.1 vs Sacred Heart: 11.5
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Mount St. Mary's: 47.8% vs Sacred Heart: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 73.0 69
SHU Score 72.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 33.4 37.0 / 24.0
Assists 11.5 / 14.1 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.1 / 1.8 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.7 / 47.8 40.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 75.0 / 70.4 76.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 36.9 37.0 / 46.0
Steals 3.3 / 8.1 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.4 / 14.2 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
SHU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
SHU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -1.4 ATS +/-: -1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
SHU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SHU
MSM
SHU
MSM
ML
61% 20-13
53% 17-15
73% 24-9
61% 19-12
ATS
76% 25-8
62% 20-12
73% 24-9
61% 19-12
TTL
58% 19-14
81% 26-6
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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