DAYTON
FLYERSDAY
19-9 | Road
68
GEORGE WASHINGTON
REVOLUTIONARIESGW
16-12 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
0%
REVOLUTIONARIES
100%
FLYERS
--
REVOLUTIONARIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Dayton)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAY -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)
DAY By 1-7 points
21.6%
DAY By 8-14 points
27.4%
GW By 1-7 points
9.3%
GW By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Dayton
80
DAYTON
George Washington
69
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Dayton
74
DAYTON
George Washington
67
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flyers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Flyers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 27, 2026
DAY @ GW
68 - 66
Jan 6, 2026
GW @ DAY
72 - 79
Jan 4, 2025
DAY @ GW
62 - 82
Jan 30, 2024
GW @ DAY
61 - 83
Jan 21, 2023
DAY @ GW
69 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+15.6% more
Dayton: 4.6
vs
George Washington: 3.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Dayton: 39.7%
vs
George Washington: 37.7%
Steals (L5)
+19.2% more
George Washington: 7.0
vs
Dayton: 5.9
Turnovers (L5)
+14.9% more
George Washington: 12.3
vs
Dayton: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAY Score
80.0
68
GW Score
69.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 39.7
30.0 / 46.0
Assists
17.3 / 16.0
14.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.9 / 4.6
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
52.3 / 46.5
46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
75.6 / 74.1
55.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
34.9 / 32.6
35.0 / 22.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.9
7.0 / 14.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 10.7
20.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAY
Advantage
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
GW
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAY
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
GW
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9%
Total +/-: -2.7
GW
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GW
DAY
GW
DAY
ML
63%
22-13
65%
24-13
60%
21-14
64%
23-13
ATS
69%
24-11
68%
25-12
60%
21-14
64%
23-13
TTL
60%
21-14
57%
21-16
100%
35-0
100%
36-0
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