Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Thundering Herd GASO @ MRSH

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

15-15  |  Road

99
FINAL
Fri, Feb 27 • 9:00 PM ET
Cam Henderson Center
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

19-11  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
THUNDERING HERD
0%
EAGLES --
THUNDERING HERD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Marshall)
EaglesGASO (-3.5) 0 Thundering HerdMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

46.0%

Thundering Herd Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

GASO By 1-7 points

24.3%

GASO By 8-14 points

13.7%

MRSH By 1-7 points

26.2%

MRSH By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
81
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
82
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
70
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
75
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thundering Herd Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thundering Herd (+7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Thundering Herd (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u168.5 Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 GASO @ MRSH 82 - 78
Feb 27, 2026 GASO @ MRSH 99 - 82
Feb 14, 2026 MRSH @ GASO 87 - 101
Jan 25, 2025 MRSH @ GASO 71 - 67
Jan 11, 2025 GASO @ MRSH 69 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +81.7% more
Marshall: 16.8 vs Georgia Southern: 9.2
Blocks (L5) +67.7% more
Marshall: 4.7 vs Georgia Southern: 2.8
Field Goal % (L5) +11.1%
Marshall: 50.9% vs Georgia Southern: 39.8%
Rebounding (L5) +9.5% more
Marshall: 33.2 vs Georgia Southern: 30.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 81.0 99
MRSH Score 82.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 30.1 40.0 / 50.0
Assists 16.8 / 9.2 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.7 / 2.8 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.9 / 39.8 54.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 75.9 70.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 30.3 28.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.2 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 10.1 14.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
GASO
MRSH
GASO
ML
70% 21-9
56% 20-16
62% 18-11
58% 19-14
ATS
70% 21-9
64% 23-13
62% 18-11
58% 19-14
TTL
50% 15-15
61% 22-14
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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