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SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

15-15  |  Road

68
FINAL
Fri, Feb 27 • 8:30 PM ET
Mitchell Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

21-9  |  Home

55
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (South Alabama)
Golden EaglesUSM (-3.5) 0 JaguarsUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

6.7%

Jaguars Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USA -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

USM By 1-7 points

4.8%

USM By 8-14 points

1.1%

USA By 1-7 points

15.3%

USA By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
82
SOUTHERN MISS
97
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
68
SOUTHERN MISS
72
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 27, 2026 USM @ USA 68 - 55
Feb 12, 2026 USA @ USM 84 - 78
Feb 26, 2025 USA @ USM 88 - 82
Jan 15, 2025 USM @ USA 62 - 75
Feb 28, 2024 USM @ USA 70 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +9.2% more
South Alabama: 15.2 vs Southern Miss: 13.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
South Alabama: 38.0% vs Southern Miss: 33.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
South Alabama: 51.5% vs Southern Miss: 47.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.1%
South Alabama: 68.9% vs Southern Miss: 66.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 82.0 68
USA Score 97.0 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 33.0 18.0 / 42.0
Assists 15.2 / 13.9 4.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.6 / 5.3 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 47.8 33.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 68.9 / 66.8 60.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 37.7 30.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.8 / 9.2 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 16.0 6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
USM
USA
USM
ML
47% 15-17
53% 18-16
57% 17-13
73% 24-9
ATS
53% 17-15
59% 20-14
57% 17-13
74% 25-9
TTL
66% 21-11
68% 23-11
100% 30-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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