UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
4-26 | Road
65
TROY
TROJANSTROY
19-11 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
WARHAWKS
100%
TROJANS
0%
WARHAWKS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TROY -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
ULM By 1-7 points
10.7%
ULM By 8-14 points
3.3%
TROY By 1-7 points
23.0%
TROY By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
UL Monroe
78
UL MONROE
Troy
88
TROY
Simulated Score
UL Monroe
68
UL MONROE
Troy
75
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+18.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 27, 2026
ULM @ TROY
65 - 80
Feb 18, 2026
TROY @ ULM
77 - 76
Feb 1, 2025
ULM @ TROY
50 - 87
Jan 15, 2025
TROY @ ULM
77 - 58
Feb 24, 2024
TROY @ ULM
84 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.0% more
Troy: 3.7
vs
UL Monroe: 2.7
Rebounding (L5)
+20.5% more
Troy: 36.4
vs
UL Monroe: 30.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.0%
Troy: 77.5%
vs
UL Monroe: 72.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Troy: 31.8%
vs
UL Monroe: 30.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ULM Score
78.0
65
TROY Score
88.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.8 / 30.0
33.0 / 25.0
Assists
14.0 / 13.5
20.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.7 / 2.7
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.2 / 40.4
50.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
77.5 / 72.5
67.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 30.2
39.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.4 / 5.8
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 9.7
9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
TROY
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
ULM
TROY
ULM
ML
59%
20-14
50%
16-16
61%
20-13
70%
21-9
ATS
65%
22-12
78%
25-7
61%
20-13
70%
21-9
TTL
56%
19-15
59%
19-13
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
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