NORTHERN ARIZONA
LUMBERJACKSNAU
10-18 | Road
58
IDAHO
VANDALSIDHO
15-13 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
VANDALS
0%
LUMBERJACKS
--
VANDALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
IDAHO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Idaho)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IDHO -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDHO)
NAU By 1-7 points
21.6%
NAU By 8-14 points
10.7%
IDHO By 1-7 points
27.2%
IDHO By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Arizona
71
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Idaho
74
IDAHO
Simulated Score
Northern Arizona
70
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Idaho
75
IDAHO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Vandals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Vandals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Vandals (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Vandals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
NAU @ IDHO
58 - 78
Jan 31, 2026
IDHO @ NAU
79 - 62
Feb 20, 2025
IDHO @ NAU
83 - 78
Jan 25, 2025
NAU @ IDHO
80 - 72
Feb 24, 2024
IDHO @ NAU
86 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+51.1% more
Idaho: 12.8
vs
Northern Arizona: 8.4
Rebounding (L5)
+46.5% more
Idaho: 40.3
vs
Northern Arizona: 27.5
Assists (L5)
+30.4% more
Idaho: 14.0
vs
Northern Arizona: 10.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Idaho: 39.0%
vs
Northern Arizona: 34.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NAU Score
71.0
58
IDHO Score
74.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.0 / 34.2
57.0 / 41.0
Assists
14.0 / 10.7
15.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.1
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 46.2
53.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
73.8 / 71.0
55.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
40.3 / 27.5
39.0 / 27.0
Steals
5.1 / 6.8
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 8.4
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
IDHO
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -5.1
ATS +/-: -2.7
IDHO
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -2.3
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IDHO
NAU
IDHO
NAU
ML
56%
20-16
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
81%
26-6
ATS
58%
21-15
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
81%
26-6
TTL
69%
25-11
66%
21-11
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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