SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
13-47 | Road
130
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
21-36 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
KINGS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
SAC By 1-7 points
26.8%
SAC By 8-14 points
24.3%
DAL By 1-7 points
16.9%
DAL By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Sacramento
118
SACRAMENTO
Dallas
112
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Sacramento
120
SACRAMENTO
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kings
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Kings
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks (+8)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Kings (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u234.5
Loss
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
SAC @ DAL
130 - 121
Jan 6, 2026
DAL @ SAC
100 - 98
Dec 27, 2025
DAL @ SAC
107 - 113
Apr 16, 2025
DAL @ SAC
120 - 106
Mar 3, 2025
SAC @ DAL
122 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+23.0% more
Sacramento: 9.9
vs
Dallas: 7.6
Blocks (L5)
+22.9% more
Sacramento: 4.3
vs
Dallas: 3.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.6%
Sacramento: 80.6%
vs
Dallas: 74.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.3%
Dallas: 51.8%
vs
Sacramento: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SAC Score
118.0
130
DAL Score
112.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 27.1
43.0 / 31.0
Assists
25.1 / 25.7
23.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.3 / 4.3
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.8 / 43.6
56.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 80.6
62.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
42.7 / 43.0
42.0 / 46.0
Steals
7.6 / 9.9
4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 13.8
18.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
DAL
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
SAC
DAL
SAC
ML
62%
63-39
55%
55-45
54%
44-37
61%
50-32
ATS
67%
68-34
54%
52-45-3
54%
44-37
61%
50-32
TTL
59%
60-41-1
58%
57-42-1
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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