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MIAMI

HEATMIA

31-28  |  Road

117
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

32-26  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
📊
76ERS
0%
HEAT --
76ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Philadelphia)
HeatMIA (-3.5) 0 76ersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Heat Cover

21.2%

76ers Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHI -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

MIA By 1-7 points

13.7%

MIA By 8-14 points

4.8%

PHI By 1-7 points

25.3%

PHI By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
114
MIAMI
122
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
105
MIAMI
108
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI 76ers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 76ers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 76ers (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim 76ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u238.5 Loss
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim u238.5 Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 30, 2026 PHI @ MIA 109 - 119
Feb 26, 2026 MIA @ PHI 117 - 124
Nov 23, 2025 MIA @ PHI 127 - 117
Apr 7, 2025 PHI @ MIA 105 - 117
Mar 29, 2025 MIA @ PHI 118 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +43.4% more
Philadelphia: 12.0 vs Miami: 8.4
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Philadelphia: 49.1% vs Miami: 46.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.2%
Philadelphia: 79.4% vs Miami: 77.2%
Rebounding (L5) +20.4% more
Miami: 53.5 vs Philadelphia: 42.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 114.0 117
PHI Score 122.0 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 34.4 40.0 / 43.0
Assists 25.3 / 31.2 26.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.9 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 46.4 48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 79.4 / 77.2 94.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 42.6 / 53.5 49.0 / 45.0
Steals 12.0 / 8.4 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 14.2 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0 (51.8%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
47-36-0 (56.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4% Total +/-: +3.0
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
MIA
PHI
MIA
ML
63% 69-40
48% 46-50
48% 45-48
59% 48-34
ATS
65% 71-38
51% 49-47
48% 45-48
59% 48-34
TTL
55% 60-49
59% 57-39
100% 93-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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