CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
28-31 | Road
133
INDIANA
PACERSIND
15-44 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
PACERS
100%
HORNETS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
CHA By 1-7 points
27.2%
CHA By 8-14 points
20.1%
IND By 1-7 points
21.6%
IND By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
119
CHARLOTTE
Indiana
116
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Charlotte
109
CHARLOTTE
Indiana
121
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pacers (+13)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o229.5
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u229.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
IND @ CHA
108 - 129
Feb 26, 2026
CHA @ IND
133 - 109
Jan 8, 2026
IND @ CHA
114 - 112
Nov 19, 2025
CHA @ IND
118 - 127
Apr 2, 2025
CHA @ IND
105 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.2% more
Charlotte: 5.6
vs
Indiana: 3.2
Rebounding (L5)
+13.3% more
Charlotte: 47.7
vs
Indiana: 41.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.8%
Charlotte: 86.0%
vs
Indiana: 79.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.9%
Charlotte: 42.9%
vs
Indiana: 37.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
119.0
133
IND Score
116.0
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 42.9
31.0 / 48.0
Assists
29.9 / 27.3
28.0 / 35.0
Blocks
3.2 / 5.6
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 46.5
47.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
79.3 / 86.0
80.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
41.3 / 47.7
37.0 / 46.0
Steals
8.5 / 9.2
7.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
17.5 / 15.5
12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CHA
IND
CHA
ML
48%
47-50
61%
60-39
54%
45-38
48%
40-44
ATS
59%
57-40
60%
59-40
54%
45-38
48%
40-44
TTL
54%
52-45
58%
57-42
100%
83-0
100%
84-0
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