HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
36-21 | Road
113
ORLANDO
MAGICORL
31-26 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
MAGIC
100%
ROCKETS
--
MAGIC
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-7 points
23.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.2%
ORL By 1-7 points
10.7%
ORL By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
119
HOUSTON
Orlando
109
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
Houston
105
HOUSTON
Orlando
112
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Magic
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Magic (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o214.0
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim
u214.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
HOU @ ORL
113 - 108
Nov 16, 2025
ORL @ HOU
113 - 117
Mar 19, 2025
HOU @ ORL
116 - 108
Mar 10, 2025
ORL @ HOU
84 - 97
Apr 9, 2024
ORL @ HOU
106 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+32.3% more
Houston: 17.8
vs
Orlando: 12.1
Blocks (L5)
+18.6% more
Houston: 7.4
vs
Orlando: 6.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Houston: 40.7%
vs
Orlando: 32.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Houston: 51.9%
vs
Orlando: 46.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
119.0
113
ORL Score
109.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 40.7
41.0 / 38.0
Assists
26.1 / 27.2
25.0 / 24.0
Blocks
6.1 / 7.4
4.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 51.9
45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw %
78.6 / 84.0
62.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
44.4 / 45.6
40.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.5 / 8.0
11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 17.8
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
ORL
Advantage
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
HOU
ORL
HOU
ML
61%
65-42
61%
69-44
56%
51-40
59%
51-35
ATS
64%
68-38-1
62%
70-43
56%
51-40
59%
51-35
TTL
57%
61-46
51%
58-55
100%
91-0
100%
86-0
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