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WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

16-41  |  Road

96
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:30 PM ET
State Farm Arena
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

HAWKSATL

29-31  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
0%
📊
HAWKS
100%
WIZARDS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Washington)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 HawksATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

88.5%

Hawks Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WSH -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-7 points

20.1%

WSH By 8-14 points

27.2%

ATL By 1-7 points

8.0%

ATL By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
124
WASHINGTON
112
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
110
WASHINGTON
122
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wizards Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wizards (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Hawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o235.0 Loss
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim u235.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 WSH @ ATL 96 - 126
Feb 24, 2026 WSH @ ATL 98 - 119
Dec 6, 2025 ATL @ WSH 131 - 116
Nov 25, 2025 ATL @ WSH 113 - 132
Feb 8, 2025 ATL @ WSH 125 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.6% more
Washington: 6.7 vs Atlanta: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +16.3% more
Washington: 16.0 vs Atlanta: 13.4
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Washington: 47.1% vs Atlanta: 42.4%
Rebounding (L5) +25.9% more
Atlanta: 52.1 vs Washington: 41.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 124.0 96
ATL Score 112.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 33.1 33.0 / 27.0
Assists 28.8 / 26.1 30.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.4 / 6.7 8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 47.1 46.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 80.4 / 77.4 78.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 52.1 / 41.4 56.0 / 44.0
Steals 10.3 / 9.7 12.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 16.0 14.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
ATL Advantage
48-40-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
ATL Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
50% 52-52
70% 112-49
55% 48-40
47% 39-44
ATS
53% 55-48-1
69% 111-49-1
55% 48-40
47% 39-44
TTL
53% 55-48-1
74% 119-41-1
100% 88-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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