Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Suns LAL @ PHX

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

34-23  |  Road

110
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 9:00 PM ET
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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

33-26  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
SUNS
0%
LAKERS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Phoenix)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

8.1%

Suns Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)

LAL By 1-7 points

5.8%

LAL By 8-14 points

1.4%

PHX By 1-7 points

16.9%

PHX By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
108
LOS ANGELES
122
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
110
LOS ANGELES
122
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Suns Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Suns (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o223.0 Push
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim u223.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 PHX @ LAL 73 - 101
Feb 26, 2026 LAL @ PHX 110 - 113
Dec 23, 2025 LAL @ PHX 108 - 132
Dec 14, 2025 LAL @ PHX 116 - 114
Dec 1, 2025 PHX @ LAL 125 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +16.4% more
Phoenix: 8.2 vs Los Angeles: 7.1
Rebounding (L5) +12.9% more
Phoenix: 43.1 vs Los Angeles: 38.2
Free Throw % (L5) +8.1%
Phoenix: 81.6% vs Los Angeles: 73.5%
Blocks (L5) +24.6% more
Los Angeles: 5.4 vs Phoenix: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 108.0 110
PHX Score 122.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 35.7 44.0 / 38.0
Assists 19.8 / 25.0 22.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.0 / 5.4 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.1 / 47.9 46.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 81.6 / 73.5 79.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 43.1 / 38.2 41.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.2 / 7.1 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 12.3 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
LAL
PHX
LAL
ML
57% 60-45
61% 68-43
51% 45-43
54% 49-42
ATS
58% 59-43-3
61% 67-43-1
51% 45-43
54% 49-42
TTL
59% 61-42-2
61% 66-43-2
100% 88-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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