Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Ospreys FGCU @ UNF

FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

14-15  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 7:00 PM ET
UNF Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH FLORIDA

OSPREYSUNF

6-23  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
OSPREYS
100%
EAGLES --
OSPREYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
FLORIDA GULF COAST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Florida Gulf Coast)
EaglesFGCU (-3.5) 0 OspreysUNF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

91.9%

Ospreys Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FGCU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FGCU)

FGCU By 1-7 points

16.9%

FGCU By 8-14 points

26.2%

UNF By 1-7 points

5.8%

UNF By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
80
FLORIDA GULF COAST
66
NORTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
72
FLORIDA GULF COAST
78
NORTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ospreys Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Ospreys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 FGCU @ UNF 70 - 76
Feb 11, 2026 UNF @ FGCU 81 - 90
Feb 24, 2025 UNF @ FGCU 82 - 86
Feb 8, 2025 FGCU @ UNF 84 - 70
Feb 28, 2024 FGCU @ UNF 79 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +81.5% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 4.8 vs North Florida: 0.9
Steals (L5) +34.1% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 7.1 vs North Florida: 4.7
Assists (L5) +23.0% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 15.7 vs North Florida: 12.1
Rebounding (L5) +8.1% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 36.9 vs North Florida: 33.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FGCU Score 80.0 70
UNF Score 66.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 30.5 28.0 / 22.0
Assists 12.1 / 15.7 10.0 / 13.0
Blocks 0.9 / 4.8 0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 47.6 40.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 64.2 81.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 36.9 42.0 / 39.0
Steals 4.7 / 7.1 1.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 9.2 11.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FGCU Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
UNF
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
UNF Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNF
FGCU
UNF
FGCU
ML
69% 22-10
58% 19-14
66% 21-11
67% 22-11
ATS
69% 22-10
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
67% 22-11
TTL
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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