UMASS LOWELL
RIVER HAWKSUML
13-15 | Road
64
VERMONT
CATAMOUNTSUVM
18-11 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
RIVER HAWKS
100%
CATAMOUNTS
0%
RIVER HAWKS
--
CATAMOUNTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
VERMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Vermont)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVM -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVM)
UML By 1-7 points
18.6%
UML By 8-14 points
8.0%
UVM By 1-7 points
27.2%
UVM By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UMass Lowell
77
UMASS LOWELL
Vermont
82
VERMONT
Simulated Score
UMass Lowell
68
UMASS LOWELL
Vermont
72
VERMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
UML @ UVM
64 - 66
Jan 22, 2026
UVM @ UML
77 - 68
Feb 22, 2025
UML @ UVM
61 - 85
Jan 9, 2025
UVM @ UML
67 - 63
Mar 16, 2024
UML @ UVM
61 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+15.3% more
Vermont: 2.6
vs
UMass Lowell: 2.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
Vermont: 70.3%
vs
UMass Lowell: 66.5%
Steals (L5)
+20.3% more
UMass Lowell: 4.8
vs
Vermont: 3.9
Assists (L5)
+10.7% more
UMass Lowell: 15.0
vs
Vermont: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UML Score
77.0
64
UVM Score
82.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 40.4
31.0 / 19.0
Assists
13.4 / 15.0
9.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.6 / 2.2
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 52.7
38.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
70.3 / 66.5
75.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 37.0
37.0 / 40.0
Steals
3.9 / 4.8
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 8.9
9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UML
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UVM
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UML
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UVM
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.2
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVM
UML
UVM
UML
ML
56%
19-15
70%
23-10
65%
22-12
58%
19-14
ATS
62%
21-13
70%
23-10
65%
22-12
58%
19-14
TTL
47%
16-18
58%
19-14
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
