MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
14-15 | Road
78
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
BLUE DEVILSCCSU
16-11 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
BLUE DEVILS
0%
LAKERS
--
BLUE DEVILS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Central Connecticut)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CCSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCSU)
MERC By 1-7 points
23.0%
MERC By 8-14 points
12.2%
CCSU By 1-7 points
26.8%
CCSU By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercyhurst
77
MERCYHURST
Central Connecticut
79
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Simulated Score
Mercyhurst
66
MERCYHURST
Central Connecticut
78
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Devils
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Devils
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Devils (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Blue Devils (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o139.5
Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
MERC @ CCSU
78 - 80
Jan 19, 2026
CCSU @ MERC
61 - 79
Feb 13, 2025
MERC @ CCSU
63 - 73
Jan 5, 2025
CCSU @ MERC
62 - 50
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+61.3% more
Central Connecticut: 3.3
vs
Mercyhurst: 2.0
Turnovers (L5)
+37.5% more
Central Connecticut: 11.4
vs
Mercyhurst: 8.3
Rebounding (L5)
+9.0% more
Central Connecticut: 34.7
vs
Mercyhurst: 31.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.6%
Central Connecticut: 86.0%
vs
Mercyhurst: 77.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MERC Score
77.0
78
CCSU Score
79.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 33.0
40.0 / 24.0
Assists
12.8 / 15.3
12.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.0
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.6 / 48.9
55.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
86.0 / 77.4
71.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 31.8
30.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.1 / 7.5
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 8.3
9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
CCSU
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
CCSU
14-13-1
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
CCSU
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCSU
MERC
CCSU
MERC
ML
57%
17-13
59%
20-14
57%
17-13
79%
26-7
ATS
63%
19-11
62%
21-13
57%
17-13
79%
26-7
TTL
60%
18-12
53%
18-16
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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